Demand Response Baseline Load Forecasting Based on the Combination of Time Series and Kalman Filter
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 3, May 2019
Pages:
71-76
Received:
16 May 2019
Accepted:
13 June 2019
Published:
26 June 2019
Abstract: The customer baseline load is an important reference for the industrial and commercial users to participate in the demand response project, and is affected by various factors such as the environment and user electricity usage. In order to improve the accuracy of the baseline load forecasting of industrial and commercial users, a demand response baseline load forecasting model based on time series and Kalman filter combination is proposed. The marginal contribution rate of the single forecasting model to the combined model is obtained by the Shapley value method, then gets optimal prediction results. The case results show that the Kalman filter model has higher prediction accuracy in the period of stable load fluctuation, and the ARMA model has higher prediction accuracy in the period of large load fluctuation, and the combined prediction model combines the advantages of both models and reduces the single model is affected by the time factor in the prediction process, which improves the overall prediction accuracy and expands the scope of application.
Abstract: The customer baseline load is an important reference for the industrial and commercial users to participate in the demand response project, and is affected by various factors such as the environment and user electricity usage. In order to improve the accuracy of the baseline load forecasting of industrial and commercial users, a demand response bas...
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Effect of Transformer Parameters and Line Reactor on Power Flows in High-Voltage Systems
Ngo Duc Minh,
Le Tien Phong
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 3, May 2019
Pages:
77-85
Received:
14 June 2019
Accepted:
11 July 2019
Published:
24 July 2019
Abstract: This paper focuses on the effect of transformer parameters and a line reactor on distribution of power flows in a high-voltage substation and transmission lines. Four case studies that have different values of transformer parameters including rated power, short-circuit impedance and reactance/resistance ratio are supposed in this research. Basing on power flows on transformers in case of the parallel operation, load factor of each transformer and operating parameters are considered in above case studies. Moreover, a line reactor is proposed in this paper to regulate power flows in a system having two power sources. Four operating modes of the proposed line reactor are defined by changing on/off states of switches in this device to modify the value of impedance. The effect of the line reactor on power received from sources and power flows on transmission lines is evaluated in its all modes. Research results are carried out by the ETAP 16.0 software and present high accuracy and reliability for the proposed problems. Research contributions help dispatchers understand the essence of power transmission process, solve real problems and give out effective solutions to operate high-voltage systems.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the effect of transformer parameters and a line reactor on distribution of power flows in a high-voltage substation and transmission lines. Four case studies that have different values of transformer parameters including rated power, short-circuit impedance and reactance/resistance ratio are supposed in this research. Basing o...
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