Volume 9, Issue 1, January 2020, Page: 14-25
Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model
Dong Jun, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Palidan Ainiwaer, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Liu Yao, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Received: Apr. 20, 2020;       Accepted: May 8, 2020;       Published: May 14, 2020
DOI: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12      View  110      Downloads  48
Abstract
With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.
Keywords
Driving Forces, Electricity Consumption, LMDI Decomposition Method, LEAP Scenario Analysis, Electricity Substitution
To cite this article
Dong Jun, Palidan Ainiwaer, Liu Yao, Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model, American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems. Vol. 9, No. 1, 2020, pp. 14-25. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20200901.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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